Backlog and wait times (Refugee claims and appeals)

​Key messages

• As of the end of October,
• the inventory of pending refugee claims was 85,300, down 6,000 (6.5%) from 91,300 at the end of March 2020.
• the inventory of pending appeals stood at 7,100, down 1,300 (16%) from 8,400 at the end of March 2020.
• Projected wait times are approximately 24 months for refugee claims and 12 months for refugee appeals.
• Average wait​​ times over the past 2 years have generally remained the same.  Processing times over the past 2 years have been lower than this as a reflection of a case management approach that involved processing a balance of both newer and older cases. 
• As a result of measures associated with the pandemic – including border closures – intake has been lower since spring of 2020. This had an impact on the inventory, which reduced by an average of 1,500 cases per month since May.  Intake to the RAD is returning to normal levels now that full RPD operations have resumed.
• Further reductions to inventories are possible if intake remains low through the end of the fiscal year.

If pressed on whether the IRB still needs incremental funding given the lower intake

• Without the extension of temporary funding through the Economic Update 2020, wait times would currently be in excess of 36 months for refugee claims.  Refugee appeal wait times would remain stable at 12 months as the RAD is resourced to match RPD throughput. 
• Further, without Budget 2018 and 2019 incremental funding, the backlog would have grown by some 30,000 claims and wait times would have grown to over five years.
• This represents results in excess of baseline capacity over last 2.5 years: 25k over 2018-19 and 2019-20 (77k actual vs 52k baseline funding) + 5k in 2020-21 YTD (assumes output prorated to funded capacity)
• It is expected that intake will return to high volumes once the pandemic protection measures are removed. We are also monitoring the impacts that a potential invalidation of the Safe Third Country Agreement could have on migration patterns.

We are working with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to address the Board’s longer term funding interests and look at options to align capacity with future intake of refugee claims.

Background

Targets and case management objectives for the RPD and RAD in 2020-2021:

RPD

• Finalize between 35 and 40k claims (revised Operations plan targets 37,825).
• Average processing time under two years.
• Pending inventory composition by the end of FY2020-21:
• less than 1% of claims pending over three years; and
• no more than 20% of claims pending over two years.

RAD

• Finalize 9 to 10k appeals.
• Processing time on average no more than 12 months.
• Inventory age where no more than 1% of appeals pending over 12 months by end of FY2020-21.
• Inventory age where no more than 10% of appeals pending over 12 months by end of FY2020-21.

Current age inventory profile at the RPD and the RAD:

RPD

Current age profile of claims pending as of October 31

RPD average age of inventory

After being held stable at approximately 10 to 12 months for the past 2 years, the average age of the RPD inventory increased sharply to 17 months since April 2020, due to a disruption to operations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. It can be expected to decline with business resumption and a focus on older cases through the remainder of 2020-21.

Age profile of pending refugee claims over the past two years

Older cases (12m+ and 24m+) now make up a growing proportion of the pending inventory.

RAD

Current age profile of appeals pending as of October 31, 2020

RAD Average Age of Inventory

After increasing steadily since the inception of the RAD in 2012, the average age of the RAD inventory decreased to approximately 8 months due to a focus on older appeals in 2020-21.

Age Profile of Pending Refugee Appeals over the Past Two Years

At the RAD, progress is being made to shrink the proportion of oldest cases (12+).

What is the trends analysis of growth/slowing of growth of inventory and wait times from 2018-2020?

RPD

• The inventory grew by an average of 1,500 per month from January 2018 to May 2020, when it peaked at almost 93,000 claims. 
• Since then, the trend has been reversed and the inventory has been reduced by an average of 1,500 cases per month.
• Actual and projected wait times have been held in check at less than 24 months.  There is approximately 20 months of pending work at the RPD, down from 22 months at the end of March.  Actual average processing time of 17 months over the past 2 years reflects a case management approach that involved processing a balance of both newer and older cases.

RAD

• The inventory grew at a monthly average rate of 5% from 3,800 in January 2018 to a peak of 10,400 in September 2019.
• Investments at the RAD have since led to nearly a one third decrease to 7,100 appeals at the end of October 2020.
• Wait times have been held in check at under 12 months.

What is the percentage of asylum claims approved along the continuum

Since 2018-19:

• Following decisions by RPD, 56% are approved
• An additional 5% of claimants are approved following recourse
• 4 to 5% after recourse to the RAD
  <1% after recourse to the Federal Court
• Ultimate acceptance rate is 61%

What is the percentage of asylum cases ultimately denied after full recourse pursued: denied at RPD; % appealed to RAD and rejected; of those, % appealed to FC and rejected?

• 39% of asylum cases, are ultimately rejected after full recourse.
• 3% of claimants are found to be ineligible at the eligibility/security Screen stage;
• 18% denied at RPD and do not seek recourse; and
• an additional 18% not accepted after seeking recourse at the RAD and/or Federal Court.

What are the intake/inventory/wait time projections going forward

RPD

• Intake for FY2020-21 is projected by IRCC at 34,900.
• At these levels, the RPD inventory is expected to be reduced by at least 3,000 cases this fiscal year, reaching 88,000.
• Further reductions are possible if intake remains low through the end of the fiscal year.
• Without the additional investments from recent Budgets, asylum inventories would currently be close to 120,000 cases, some 30,000 claims and 33% greater than the current levels, with average wait times of approximately five years.
• PER CHARLES: 120k represent 4.5 years for those decided at RPD and 5.5 years for the approximately 27% decided at RAD. Approximately 5 years is intended to capture that range.
• Extending these investments for an additional two years will help ensure that overall wait times remain at approximately 24 months at the RPD rather than 84 months.
• PER CHARLES: This reflects what they would be at the end of the additional 2 years assuming 60k average intake over 2020-23:
• 90k at end of 2019-20 + 3 x 60k = 270k total work
• 38k in 2020-21 + 26k in 2021-22 + 26k in 2022-23 = 90k finalizations
• 270k work – 90k finalizations = 180k pending in March 2023
• 180k pending claims @ 26k capacity = 7 years = 84 months

RAD

• Resourced to match RPD output. As a result, inventory and wait times are expected to remain stable.

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